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Tackling the tangle of presidential betting vs. political conscience

editor — Wed, 07 May 2008 05:57:37 -0400

It was murder. The only Democrat among my local watering hole’s swarm of born Republicans, I had just spent the last two hours listening my drinking buddies launch a litany of my party’s worst PR catastrophes in my direction. Not only did they hit the obvious ones, the current primary “situation” and the Rev. Wright’s blustering; but they’d also made sure to work in the scandals of yesteryear like White Water, Monica Lewinski and NAFTA. Then Paul, the owner of the place and—despite what I consider his shitbrick political leanings—a good friend, pointed at me with the detached beer pull in his hand and asked the one question I’d been dreading all night.

“Who are you betting on?” he said.

And without missing a beat or even having to think about it, “McCain” slipped from my mouth like a pair of broken teeth….

It’s a sad fact but 100-percent true that if you’re a good partisan—pitching your party a couple grand in donations; making all the stump speeches, debates and conventions; and reading every issue of your subscription of The Nation or The National Review—you probably won’t make a good election bettor. After all, winning money on any prop requires you keep a clear head, and for many Americans, this year’s U.S. presidential race has had more emotional impact than their best friends’ weddings.

Is your conscience costing you, this election?

I had been thinking about this and my night out with the guys when I first pitched this piece to the editors at GP three weeks ago. Of course it’s true, I spieled during a quick lunch-time e-mail, with plenty of yanks backing their favorite candidates right now, there are plenty of chances to make money and not a few lessons to be learned in a how-to section. But the real problem is, even for those who aren’t directly involved in the election process , the question of who will become America’s next president still makes a huge difference—And that kind of content, I reasoned, demands an editorial.

Well, as you can see, the rest of the GP crew bit, and so I started on my way building up the background. Logging hours in chat rooms and constantly monitoring the odds posted by sites like Bodog and William Hill, I found that—much to my own miserable chagrin—Mr. McCain’s odds had actually peaked at 5-4 while, as I watched them, Senators Clinton and Obama’s had sunk to 11-2 and 1-1 respectively. Still the odds did bring up another question for a hopeless dreamer like myself: Did my beloved donkeys’ dismal numbers really portend a November failure, or like playing the dogs and the horses, could the odds just reflect an over-anxious rabble looking to make a quick quid with the offshore books?

To get my answers, I turned to one of the web’s most vocal election-betting gurus, Offshoreinsiders.com head honcho Joe Duffy, who’s been solidly blogging the topic in his personal blog-space, http://www.joeduffy.net/, since the primaries began last year. After a couple hit-and-miss attempts to connect, I finally got him on the phone last Friday, and after some opening banter on our earlier years in Pennsylvania—Joe went to college just 45 minutes from where I grew up—I sank in with my first (and probably most obvious) question: “So who are you backing to win the presidential race?” I asked.

Sadly Joe’s response wasn’t exactly what I had been hoping for.

“Right now,” he explained, “All the books are leaning towards McCain because the feeling is everything bad about him—the fact that he’s a Republican and the alleged affair from the [New York] Times article—is already out in the open…. There’s a real sense with most people at this point that both [Democratic] candidates are not done digging up dirt on each other, and the only thing that has changed my mind [about backing them] is that things are getting nasty.”

So okay, I thought, so that’s bad, but how about the quality of the books’ interpretation? There has to be some flaw here, right?—I let the verbal equivalent of this stream-of-consciousness fly then and waited with baited breath…. But again Joe’s answer hit me like a punch in the face: “The books’ numbers on an election are the most objective,” he said. “The traditional wisdom is Gallop swings right and the Times swings left, while [the books] consider all of them before setting the odds.

“Basically if the odds say one thing and the polls say the opposite, go with the odds because there’s really no reason to doubt them. Normally, the books cap bets at $50 because it’s just for publicity and nobody’s making a lot of money from it.”

Needless to say all this was hellova devastating for yours-truly, and as I listened to Joe and took notes, I found myself compulsively multitasking online, staking another $25 on McCain. It turned my stomach doing it, and yet at the same time, I reasoned, I’m definitely going to need the money if he ends up winning.

But then, the other shoe dropped.

No sooner had I submitted my second wager than Joe pointed out another dimension to election betting. “Basically,” he explained, “Hillary’s 5-4 odds are only a matter of whether or not a Washington insider like her can snatch up the super delegates, while Obama’s got all the intangibles going for him…. And after all, every political expert has thought, ‘The worst publicity is no publicity,’ which is exactly where McCain sits at the moment.

“Also, [the odds] will definitely change after PA,” he continued. “When you handicap a poll it’s a snapshot in time…. I don’t think the odds influence the polls nearly as much as the polls influence the odds. During the last presidential election, the exit polls were going for John Kerry and so the odds shifted a couple times per day.”

And so there I was, in a complete bind. Having bet for and against my party and voted for them, and even contributed to both candidates’ campaign funds, I realized I had become so worried about splitting my world between my conscience and my bottom line that I had essentially flubbed the same rule of gambling I was trying to live up to. My many bets, both with the books and otherwise, had left me no further ahead. In fact, I was in it deeper than a rooky roulette player placing chips on both red and black, not stopping for the moment it takes to figure out that he’s just breaking even.

As Mr. Duffy and I finished out interview then, I thanked him not only for the scads of information he’d provided but also (secretly) for helping me screw my head back on straight. The fact of the matter is, I now understood, this election would be like any democratic election from here to Australia. There would be dips, and there would be doosies; there would be moments when I, personally, would feel like the march of progress had finally reached my front door, and there would be times when I would despair that my country was about to fall back into the Dark Ages. And so, finally—FINALLY—I decided the only thing to do when it comes to election betting is cut my losses, hope for the best and be surprised at nothing. At least that way, I’ll still have a few dollars left to hit the track this spring.

Joe Duffy's 5 Secrets for election-betting success

5. GET ACQUAINTED: According to Joe Duffy, “The more you know about the candidates, the more likely you are to win.” He suggests forgetting the talking heads and going to the most objective site he’s found: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/.

4. DON’T GET ATTACHED: As you can see from writer Phill Provance’s experience, politics is a hard game to keep your heart out of. Joe suggests keeping your nose out of the money game if you can’t keep an objective stance since you’ll more than likely be throwing your money away.

3. DON’T WALK THE PLANK:“Platforms and specific planks can help in other races, but they don’t generally affect the presidential race,” Joe says. Generally as a rule then, bet the guy with the sparkle in his eye, not the guy who could actually make a positive difference.

2. WATCH THE PRESSES: Joes says, “When you’re going to bet, you’re basically going to have to anticipate what will come out in the news.” Obviously unless you’re a top-level political strategist or Washington newspaper’s bureau chief, this will be pretty difficult. Still, being a long-time reader of some of America’s more partisan publications can at least give you perspective on prior scandals that didn’t make the evening news.

1. NEVER GO ALL-IN: The ultimate lesson to be learned according to Joe is that “American voters are fickle.” Hence, wagering your mortgage on them, in the end, is an absolute no-no.

Slots Tournaments FAQ

editor — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:58:19 -0400

Many of our dedicated readers have lately sent us questions regarding the nature of slots tournaments. These tournaments have been around for some time, and can be found both online and offline. Since this is a gambling activity that is lately gaining much attention and popularity, the expert writing team at GamblingPlanet.org feels it’s a good time to answer some of your questions.

Q: What are slots tournament?
A: New technology allows slots to be played as a competitive game, amongst a number of gamers who are playing simultaneously against each-other. Of course, most people still consider slots to be a solitary activity, but that no longer has to be the case. Thanks to the popularity of table games such as poker and blackjack, slots have now also become communal.

Griffin Investigations – Protecting the Gambling Industry

editor — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 07:29:18 -0400

The gambling industry is worth billions of dollars in annual revenue, and wherever there’s that much money involved, there will always be people scheming to get a slice of the pie. Some using more legal means than others, people have always been searching for ways to ‘break the casino’. There are two basic types of physical security threats to casinos: Teams like Ocean’s Eleven represent one type while the MIT Blackjack Team is a completely different story.

In the first remake of the film Ocean’s Eleven, a team of highly-specialized heist men rob the central vault shared by three Las Vegas casinos: The Mirage, the Bellagio and the MGM Grand. Whether acting as individuals or as a team, people like Ocean and his eleven men are usually confronted by ordinary law-enforcement agencies, as their actions are straight-out illegal. Casinos tend to have state-of-the-art security systems and many paid guards, due to the simple fact that a lot of money is at stake. However, dealing with tough guys and criminals is usually a job left to the cops.

Will Smoking Restrictions Hit Atlantic City Casinos?

editor — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:41:56 -0400

Gambling and smoking have always seemed to go hand in hand. The classic image of the casino floor usually comes complete with heavy cigarette smoke in the dim lights. Is all that about to change? As awareness to the dangers of passive smoking rises, more and more casinos are facing anti-smoking laws that may put out the smoke in casinos for good. Next in line is Atlantic City, where casino owners, headed by Donald Trump, are ready to fight for their clients’ right to smoke, and their own right to make more money.

Betting on Euro 2008

editor — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 13:03:00 -0400

As the 2008 European Football Championship draws near, bookmakers are looking for ways to capitalize on the hype and attract bettors to their sites. Major sporting events have always been accompanied by heavy sign-up bonuses, and the Euro 2008 is no exception. As always, we want our readers to be well prepared. GamblingPlanet.org is proud to present the first in a series of articles dedicated to the UEFA Euro 2008.

The Euro 2008 is scheduled to start on June 7th and end on June 29th, but the betting action starts much earlier and is already in full swing. There are many future bets that may be placed well before the tournament even starts. Perhaps the most popular bet is the 'overall performance' (or 'outright win') wager. It is a bet on any single team to go all the way and win the tournament. You can also bet on a specific team to advance past a certain level, as well as on the outcome of first-round games.

What Slot Machines Must Do to Survive

editor — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 08:39:13 -0400

Since they were introduced by Charles Fey in the 1890’s, slot machines have pretty much stayed the same. The effortless nature of the game is arguably what makes slots so attractive to so many gamblers around the world - all you need in order to play is a bucket of coins, some spare time and the ability to pull a lever or push a button. But the same effortlessness is proving to be quite a problem among the younger generation of gamblers.

For a generation of gamblers that was raised on graphically complex action-packed video games, the existing slot machine format just doesn’t seem to cut it any more. Studies show that gamblers between the age of 21 and 40 tend to spend very little time at the slot machines. Most of these ‘next generation’ gamblers spend most of their time, and money, at skilled-game tables such as poker and blackjack. But the casino owners are not ready to give up on this generation just yet.

There's a New Blackjack Bet in Town

editor — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 06:42:56 -0400

A new blackjack bet is sweeping the casinos in the US. Actually, the bet is not so new, but under a new name it is finally getting the attention its inventor believes it deserves. The inventor, Frank Mugnolo, is president and CEO of ‘Casino Gaming LLC’ which is based in Chicago. He came up with the idea for the ‘Automatic Win’ a few years ago, but the original name he chose was ‘Casino Surrender’. Mugnolo started touring around the US in search for potential buyers, and some casinos started using the bet successfully. For some reason, however, the bet never really took off until Mugnolo recently decided to change the name to the more convincing and positive-sounding ‘Automatic Win’.

Blackjack Team Play Hits Hollywood

editor — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 10:48:10 -0400

The MIT blackjack team is probably the most notorious and successful card-counting team in the history of the game. As expected from students of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), players on the team used sophisticated card-counting techniques, as well as the ‘big player’ team strategy, to gain a considerable edge over the casino. Now, their amazing story is being acted out by Kevin Spacey, Laurence Fishburne and Kate Bosworth in a new movie entitled ‘21’.

Blackjack is the only casino table game in which skilled players can gain an edge over the casino. A player must use correct basic strategy and apply card counting techniques to keep track of the number of high cards (tens and aces) remaining in the deck. When the deck is rich with high cards, a player has a better chance to hit 21. If a player bets more when the count is high, and less when it’s low, he can gain an edge of roughly 2%. After that short explanation you may be asking yourself ‘OK, but why bother with a team?’.

The problem is that casinos don’t like to give away money. If a player shows suspicious behavior, such as consistently raising his bets when the count is high, the casino will eventually ban him. Team play gets rid of that problem – one member, known as the ‘big player’ is the high-roller that places all the big bets. The rest of the team place small bets and are sitting at their tables just so they can count the cards. When the count is right, they signal to the big player to join the table and make his move, and that’s how the team avoids detection by casino security. Doesn’t that sound dramatic? At least somebody at Colombia Pictures thought so.

The MIT team wasn’t the first big player team, but it was the most successful, and is by far the most well known. It operated on-and-off from 1979 until the early 2000’s, and its story has already gained much media attention. First came the New York Times Best Selling book with the long title: Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions. Written by Ben Mezrich, the book was first published in 2002, and was an instant hit. Later came the sequel by the same author - Busting Vegas, which told the story of a different MIT card counting team, and was also a great success, even though its title was much shorter.

The History Channel aired a documentary called Breaking Vegas, which focuses on the most successful period of the MIT team. Game Show Network responded with a documentary of their own called Anything to Win. The BBC was fast to follow with the most critically acclaimed version of the story (to date) - Making Millions the Easy Way, which also emphasized the mathematical aspect of the story.

Now Hollywood is ready to take a crack at this amazing story. 21 is a new film scheduled to come out next month. It’s loosely based on Mezrich’s book, who also helped write the screenplay. Robert Luketic (Legally Blonde) directed a star-studded cast, with Jim Sturgess playing the lead role of Ben Campbell, an MIT student who is recruited into the team. The team is lead by an unorthodox math professor named Micky Rosa (Kevin Spacey). Things heat up after casino security enforcer Cole Williams (Laurence Fishburne) realizes something is going on, and is determined to end the team’s winning streak. Of course, there is also a love story. It is, after all, Hollywood’s version of the story.

GP Recommended Blackjack Spots

If '21' happened to stimulate your curiosity, try out some our GP Top-rated Blackjack destinations:

Ken Uston - A True Team Player

editor — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:25:03 -0400

Though he didn’t invent blackjack team play, Ken Uston is widely credited for popularizing the technique that would later help earn blackjack teams millions of dollars. Born in 1935 in New York to an Austrian mother and Japanese father, Ken - or Kenny when referred to by his friends – was an exceptionally gifted child, and he was admitted into Yale University when he was only 16. Shortly after graduating with the highest honors, Ken earned his master's degree in business administration (MBA) from Harvard. By the age of 31 he was moving up in the corporate world, earning close to $50,000 a year as Senior Vice President of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. But something was missing from his life, and Kenny decided to drop out of the corporate world and become a professional blackjack player.

GP Spotlight: Betfair Casino and the Zero Lounge

editor — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 15:37:21 -0400

Frequent visitors to GamblingPlanet will probably notice that we’ve recently added Betfair Casino to our list of top online casinos. Now, the addition of a new casino to our listings is certainly nothing out of the ordinary – here at GamblingPlanet we strive to make sure to provide our visitors and users everywhere the most up-to-date reviews and comprehensive information on industry developments. Since the addition of Betfair to our site, we’ve received several emails asking for more details on this new offering and its popular ‘Zero Lounge’. Accordingly, we’ve decided – and we admit, it’s a bit unusual for us to do so – to go a step further and answer your calls for more information on this new arrival as well as detail some of the exciting developments occurring at the moment with regard to this casino.