More so than in any other country in the world, the British are renowned for their love of talking about the weather. In fact, most conversations begin with some weather remark, but rarely is it the favored topic in betting shops. Overlook it, however, at your own peril. This article will explain why the weather plays such an important factor in sports betting around the world.
You might think that professionals can overcome extreme weather conditions unlike your local softball team and yes they can, but only to an extent. Sports betting is about small margins and knowing who has an edge, and every successful gambler is one who pays attention to detail. Weather often sways how even professionals perform and this often can be the difference between winning and losing.
Under calm and gentle conditions, the quality of the team or individual will more often than not shine through. Yet when the weather becomes more extreme, factors such as power, security and caution often replace the more artistic qualities such as skill, speed and finesse. Here is how the weather can affect different sports which are popular for betting.
So how much do extreme conditions really effect how a team plays? Rain, wind, cold and heat can definitely go along way in influencing a match, potentially reducing obviously mismatched teams to an equal plane. Often it’s the team with greater ability that will come through but a shocking upset is certainly more likely when the conditions are adverse. Hence, each year in the English FA cup we see many heavy favorites go down, especially around the Christmas period.
The FIFA World Cup and European Championships are also great examples of testy weather conditions wreaking havoc. For example, A team from the southern hemisphere will always enjoy a big advantage playing a European team in the hot summer months. The 2002 World Cup in Japan and Korea illustrated perfectly the difficulties that many teams from cooler climates (Europeans) face when playing in great humidity. A well-placed bet here will be on the European teams conceding in the second half as players grow tired and begin to cramp up. However games played at night will usually not be affected in the same way. Make sure you study the match times and locations before placing any bets.
It should also be noted that in the winter months when wet conditions make the game more precarious, referees are often more lenient. So if you were to place a spread bet on the number of cards, for example, then note that the highest booking counts tend to be at the beginning and end of the season.
Like soccer, rugby is very much centered on keeping the ball, and never more so than in nasty weather. The handling of a rugby in torrential rain is a tricky business so the focus is less on intricate back play and more on ball retention within the forwards. Games are won by packs that can gain valuable territory and kickers who can find touch consistently to move their team further upfield. In these conditions, as in the modern game, more points are scored by kicking penalties and drop goals, and thus it can often become a contest between two fly halves.
As we can see from years of watching the golf’s Ryder Cup, big tournaments are often played under difficult conditions. It almost goes without saying that players who have trouble finding the fairways in decent conditions are going to really struggle in high winds. But even the Tiger Woods of this world can have a bad shot or two due to a windy occasion, but a good player will modify their play, staying calm so that it doesn’t affect the whole round. Consider how a player generally works the ball (i.e. left-to-right, high towering drives, low punch shots) and whether they are versatile, all-weather players. The American Tom Watson was always a bookie’s favorite at the British Open due to his ability to play well under extreme conditions. A player’s natural environment can determine how they perform in bad conditions. A player like Colin Montgomerie, who is accuastomed to keeping the ball low in more extreme Scottish conditions, will be a better bet than many other players, who are used to the calm conditions typical of the PGA Tour.
Not unlike its British cousin, American Football relies heavily on the idea that positioning, ball control, and a stringent defensive focus is necessary when playing in poor conditions. Games tend to be low scoring, and the difference often depends on successfully converted field goals. Some cities in the US experience bitter winters and we often see NFL games held in blizzard-like conditions. Teams will opt to run the ball frequently, not wanting to take there chances in the air. This will bring the running backs play more, so adverse conditions nearly always favor the team with the stronger ground game. Furthermore, watch out for teams who are used to a certain climate, playing in foreign or hostile weather conditions. The Tampa Bay Bucs will nearly always have a handicap when playing in Green Bay in February.
