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Editorial: Are Early Favorites Always a Long-Shot?

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Most of the known world is privy to Australia's famous race, the Melbourne Cup. One of the world's biggest horse races, this annual event brings an entire country to a standstill. People come from far and wide to celebrate the race. It's a day of festivities, where the women show their fashionable sensibilities, and gamblers attempt to strike riches by picking the winner.

 

Some of the aristocratic women in attendance

Some of the aristocratic women in attendance

 

Fashionistas aside, this day is all about the horses and which of the field will take the top prize and make some lucky betters wealthy.

This year's Melbourne Cup favorite, until very recently withdrawing from the race, was Profound Beauty.

 

Profound Beauty
Profound Beauty

Profound Beauty, famed trainer Dermot Weld's pride and joy, was expected to make the trip to Australia before being placed in quarantine in preparation to race in the Cup. However, the five-year-old horse was curbed after the horse's owners decided not to risk injury.

In recent years, more horses have succumbed to life-threatening and life-ending injuries after running too hard too often. The absence of Profound Beauty means that the race is out its only Irish participant, and that gambling hopefuls will have to look elsewhere for their favorite.

 

One of the favorites of online bookmakers is Roman Emperor
Roman Emperor
Roman Emperor

After winning the AJC Australian Derby in April of this year, Roman Emperor started to gain some serious momentum en route to the Melbourne Cup. This powerful colt, trained by Bart Cummings, is exciting to watch and dangerous when turned loose. Of course, not all "professionals" are in agreement about where to rank the hot horse. Some bookmakers have him going off at 33/1, on the long end of the spectrum, and others have him looking strong at 16/1.

Punters, be advised: keep your eyes on Roman Emperor as he approaches the Melbourne Cup.

 

Another horse expected to do well is 2008 Melbourne Cup winner, Viewed.
Roman Emperor
Viewed with jokey Blake Shinn

Repeating is nothing new in recent years for the Melbourne Cup, although it's a feat rarely repeated in the race's storied history. In 2003, 04 and 05, Makybe Diva walked away with top prize in the race, making it even more impressive that 2003's trainer, David Hall, was replaced with Lee Freedman, and still the powerhouse horse won.

Other back-to-back winners include Think Big (1974-1975), Rain Lover (1968-1969), and Archer (1861-1862), who won the first two races ever.

Historically speaking, Viewed seems up against some cruel reality. Makybe Diva was considered a freak of nature. Viewed is considered but a good horse with a decent chance. Tan Chin Nam, Viewed's owner, has a great working relationship with the horse's trainer, Bart Cummings (Bart is all over Australia as one of the best trainers), but is that chemistry enough to repeat?

Many think not, and most bookmakers and odds-fixers are in agreement that Efficient is this year's prohibited favorite after Profound Beauty's withdraw.

 

Efficient
Efficient

Efficient is no stranger to the winning circle. This impressive racehorse captured the 2007 Melbourne Cup, jockeyed by Michael Rodd (pictured) and trained by Graeme Rogerson. Efficient's win time wasn't very proficient (3.23.34) compared to Viewed's 2008 win (3.20.58), but those numbers are dependent on many factors and, by and large, relative to the field.

Why is Efficient the favorite this year? After his brutally devastating performance in the Group One Turnbull Stakes only two weeks ago, the racing world took notice of a horse that was bigger, faster, stronger (and greyer) than the year he won the Melbourne Cup. And without Profound Beauty's dominating presence to complicate matters, many feel as if Efficient should be effective enough to run away with first place.

Efficient is looking good in the short, going off at 11/2 with a variety of bookmakers. Although there are still many more horses in the field, the abovementioned are the real head-turners of the year, and for very good reason.

 

 

In Conclusion

There’s always a favorite horse or two every year. That’s nothing new. However, punters should be advised when attempting to place bets: even though the race is only a couple of weeks away, a lot can happen in a day in the life of a racehorse. These “experts” who pick the favorites are easily capable of being wrong. Don’t be so complacent as to put all your faith in the words of a bookmaker.

These animals can tear or stretch something on a casual run or even being hot-walked. Basically, today’s favorite to play hero may be tomorrow’s goat.

Whichever horse you decide to go with, don’t forget to bet responsibly and actually enjoy the day of festivities.

Punters, good luck and good speed.

 

 

26-Oct-2009, 13:15

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