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Editorial: What are the odds of contracting the H1N1 virus? Can anyone put ...
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Are you debating over the purchase of a face mask in preparation for this winter's predicted swine flu epidemic? While the H1N1 threat failed to reach emergency levels in the spring and summer, health officials around the world insist that a big swine flu outbreak is still imminent. Gambling Planet readers that turn to us for advice on all of their big gambles would be wise to read on for our summary of swine flu odds and statistics.
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently predicted that as much as 12 to 24% of the population would contract the new influenza virus this winter. That would give unvaccinated American citizens an odds spread of as little as a 1 in 10 or as much as a 1 in 4 chance of getting the H1N1 virus. If a vaccine is not made available to the general public by the end of 2009, the CDC has predicted that as much as 40% of the population will encounter the disease over the next two years. That increases your chances of contracting swine flu to 2 in 5; uncomfortably close to even odds (closer than a majority of craps bets anyway). Your probability increases significantly if your immunity has already been compromised. Good news for the 50 and up crowd though: the senior population has actually shown greater immunity to this disease.
In the UK, health officials are already backpedaling from earlier “pandemic” predictions. They now predict that as little as 5% or as much as 30% of the population could contract the virus. You won't find that kind of spread in a sportsbook! With only 70 confirmed H1N1 related deaths in the UK this year, it's hard to swallow future estimates of 3,000 to 19,000 fatalities.
Are these numbers we would bet on? We're dubious to say the least. First, previous H1N1 predictions have proven to be vastly exaggerated. Second, a large number of the cases currently being counted have not actually been confirmed as swine flu. Third, during the normal flu season approximately 5% to 10% of the population catch a flu virus, so the low end of the swine flu predictions isn't really indicative of a major outbreak—it's pretty much just normal. Finally, the data used to compile the CDC's most recent predictions comes from a flu outbreak in 1957. Let's hope our health care has improved at least a little in the last half century.
On the other hand, both North American and European scientists have predicted a big increase in swine flu cases come October. The kids will be back in school, and cold weather will drive people inside where the H1N1 virus (which can survive for 24 hours outside a host) flourishes and spreads more quickly. Reports of new swine flu outbreaks are already surfacing all over the world. Just this week, Washington State University reported 2,000 student cases of swine flu in the first ten days of their new semester. With a student body of 19,000, that means at least 10% of the sample population has already been affected, and the numbers are still rising.
It's important to note that live casino players put themselves at an increased risk to contract swine flu; crowded casinos with their many man-handled games create an ideal environment for the spread of the H1N1 virus. What's your best strategy for beating the swine flu odds? As we reported in another recent GP article, playing online cuts your exposure to the disease dramatically. Maybe now's not the best time to plan a trip to Las Vegas...
For everyday protection, get vaccinated (wherever possible), and be sure to get both the initial and the booster shots. Using disinfectants in your home and at work will cut your exposure rate. Surprisingly, the best swine flu strategy is the simplest and is hopefully something you're already doing: washing your hands. Washing your hands greatly reduces your risk of transferring the disease (and many other gross things) from dirty surfaces to your own body.
And if you do hit the bad side of the swine flu odds, don't start planning your funeral just yet; current H1N1 virus statistics show that regardless of your chances of getting sick, only 0.1% of all swine flu cases end in death. Comforting, right?
07-Sep-2009, 17:25
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H1N1
Wed, 10/28/2009 - 01:18 — nmc (not verified)H1N1 Vaccine
Mon, 10/12/2009 - 04:42 — Keith (not verified)H1N1
Sat, 10/10/2009 - 04:08 — Janet (not verified)Post new comment