Tip Finder: GP’s Picks for the Champions League Knockout Round

We’ve reached the knockout phase of this year’s Champions League with few surprises in the overall schedule. Ten clubs from last year are again aiming for the title, while those who won’t be around to take another shot at it – AC Milan, Sevilla FC, Celtic FC, FC Schalke 04, Olympiacos CFP and Fenerbahce SK – have been replaced by a similarly mixed bag of contenders. Likewise, this year’s group stages were much of the same - except, of course, for Werder Bremen’s win over Internazionale, which still wasn’t enough to land them in the top two group qualifiers.

The draw for the next round came out last Friday, and it showed some very interesting match-ups. All four English clubs face stiff competition, although Chelsea and Arsenal – both finishing second in their groups – will be thankful they managed to avoid Barca in the next round. Here are the match-ups along with our own thoughts and predictions on who will take the day. Also included in parentheses are the latest odds for each club, as seen on PaddyPower.com.

GP’s Breakdown for Round I: Feb. 24-25

Barcelona (9/2) v. Lyon (37/1)
The Catalans are coming off a 2-0 victory in El Clasico last week and look to be in top form. Consequently, they’re also the bookies’ darlings all the way down the line. Look for Leo Messi to win the top-scorer trophy. The current odds have him the favoured at 4/1, and with five already in the bag, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. This will be the seventh year in a row Lyon have made it to the knockout stage, but they’ve got a bad history with the league, having never made it past the quarterfinals. With Barça as their next-round number, we doubt there will be any major changes in the general trend.
Our pick: Barcelona

Manchester United (6/1) v. Inter Milan (15/2)
A disappointing draw to Aalborg on day six of the previous round shouldn’t worry many United supporters, least of all Sir Alex – although he did mention that the lads could be in for a “humiliating exit” if they don’t pull their socks up quickly. Their showing at the Club World Cup in Japan this past week confirms their commitment to getting the job done, but no doubt, the competition will be much fiercer when they travel to San Siro to face Jose Mourinho’s side.

For Mourinho's part, the Special One knew that finishing second in the group-qualifying stages would mean potentially facing a top-drawer opponent, which is exactly what he got in Manchester United. His return to England will be nothing less than a spectacle, and in a typical Mourinho moment of psychological jousting, he went on record saying that he was “very satisfied” with drawing the current holders.
Our pick: Manchester United

Chelsea (6/1) v. Juventus (20/1)
If the Blues haven’t worked out how to win games at the once-impregnable Stamford Bridge by the time the first leg kicks off in February, they could quite easily be sent packing earlier than usual. Juve look strong and manager Claudio Ranieri is angling to upset his former club. The Tinkerman will be hoping to return Juve to a Champions League glory they haven’t experienced since 1965, while Big Phil Scolari will come under increasing pressure if he fails to take his struggling side to the next stage.
Our pick: Juventus

Liverpool (11/1) v. Real Madrid (14/1)
Expect another barnstormer here: While no one is expecting much from Los Blancos this year, that doesn’t mean that they aren’t capable of pulling off a stunner; with new coach Juande Ramos at the helm, and a host of experience under their belt, Real is a serious contender for the title, which has eluded them since their record ninth victory back in 2002. The problem, of course, is that facing Liverpool in the Champions League is always a daunting task as the Reds look to see themselves into the quarterfinals for the third year in a row.
Our pick: Liverpool

GP’s Breakdown for Round II: March 10-11

Arsenal (16/1) v. Roma (25/1)
Three out of the four English teams are facing Italian clubs in the next round, and rivalries are sure to be reignited. Both of these teams have disappointed so far this season: Roma are currently foundering in the bottom half of the Series A table and Arsenal aren’t doing much better, having recently slipped out of the top four in the English premiership. Really, it depends on which side of Arsenal turns up in Rome, but their depth and raw talent should see them through to the next round.
Our pick: Arsenal

Bayern Munich (19/1) v. Sporting Lisbon (219/1)
Bayern Munich went undefeated in the group stage, and they’re currently sharing top spot in the German Bundesliga. In what is probably the biggest mismatch in the knockout round, expect Der FBC to easily take care of Lisbon and go on to the quarterfinal stage for the first time since 2005. In fact, we’re going on record now to say we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bayern at the finals in Rome.
Our pick: Bayern Munich

FC Porto (99/1) v. Atletico Madrid (39/1)
For this Iberian clash you can expect some rather pretty football, with few if any goals flying in. Atletico conceded only four goals in six group-stage matches, and the Portuguese side came out on top of their group despite only scoring nine. Porto are currently holding down second place in the Portuguese Liga Sagres, while Atletico cling to third in La Liga. Don’t expect either side to make it past the quarterfinals.
Our pick: Porto

Panathinaikos (109/1) v. Villarreal (39/1)
Panathinaikos surprised many by finishing at the top of Group B in the previous stage, but have they got what it takes to continue an unlikely run to the quarterfinals? The crisis-ridden club and its supporters would like nothing more than to secure a berth in the next round, and they thought their prayers might have been answered when they drew Villarreal – as opposed to Inter, Chelsea, or Arsenal – for the knockout round. But the Spanish side have had plenty of European success of their own as semi-finalists in the 2006 Champions League, and most pundits agree they are simply too strong to be ousted by the Athenians.
Our pick: Villarreal

Top Goal-Scorer Odds

Lionel Messi: 4/1
Miroslav Klose: 7/1
Steven Gerrard: 8/1
Dimitar Berbatov: 9/1
Sergio Aguero: 16/1
Alessandro Del Piero: 17/1
Wayne Rooney: 17/1
Karim Benzema: 18/1
Raul: 22/1
Emmanuel Adebayor: 22/1
Bojan Krkic: 25/1
Nicolas Anelka: 25/1

- Rob White

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27-Dec-2008, 04:11

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