Roll Out: Getting an Edge in Online Roulette

Most people think roulette is as simple as simple gets: The wheel spins, the ball spins, the ball lands in a numbered pocket, voila; whether you’re playing online or in a brick-and-mortar casino, it all seems very straightforward. But Joseph Jagger’s story paints a different picture. As an example of one of history’s greatest triumphs over roulette, it can help any budding player grasp the real nature of the game – as well as teach us all a little about how to approach beating it.

Jagger is one of a select few to earn the coveted title “the man who broke the bank in Monte Carlo.” His story begins in 1875 when he was an English engineer and decided to use his knowledge of mechanics and statistics for the best possible cause: making cold, hard cash at the popular European Roulette tables of Monte Carlo. He hired six men to record the outcome of six wheels at the famous Beaux-Arts casino. What Jagger was looking for was a bias in the wheels, and that’s exactly what he found. After two years of careful monitoring, Jagger’s team learned that one wheel’s ball landed in nine of the 37 numbered pockets more frequently than was statistically probable.

Jagger placed his bets accordingly and won £14,000 the very first day (around £750,000 nowadays). But that wasn’t the end of it. Over the next three days, he continued to cash in, winning a total of £60,000. Other gamblers in town started copying him, and the casino was hit so hard it had to completely rearrange its roulette wheels. Jagger took his earnings - around £3 million in today’s money - and left Monte Carlo never to return.

Many years have passed, and today there are still several ways to improve your odds at the roulette table just like Jagger did. The bad news is that modern casinos frequently test their wheels for biases, and rarely will you be able to follow Jagger’s plan step by step. The good news is that you won’t need to hire six tight-lipped clerks or wait two years to gain an edge. After you’ve chosen your preferred online roulette destination, the first way to gain an edge is to simply choose the right wheel.

American Roulette vs. European Roulette

Always ask yourself, “What would Joseph Jagger do?” Our first tip is to only play the online roulette table that gives you the best odds of winning. Some basic differences exist between American and European Roulette (i.e., French Roulette). The American wheel comes with 38 pockets, including a 00 slot which improves the house odds. A European wheel, which was invented later by the Monte Carlo Casino’s first owners, François and Louis Blanc, has 37 slots numbered 0-36. A European table gives the house a 2.7 percent edge, while casinos using American wheels have a 5.26 percent edge – almost twice the vigorish. Clearly, you should always play European Roulette whenever possible.

This is the main reason why playing roulette online is better than playing offline. Imagine making your way to a casino only to find out after you get there that they exclusively stock the floor with American Roulette tables. Of course, you’ll probably sit and spin a few rounds anyway, but the likelihood that you’ll win anything is next to nil. On the Internet, on the other hand, the variety of wheels is so vast that you’ll never have to settle for an American Roulette table and will always be able to find a European game to join.

Online Roulette Systems

Before we take a look at any specific betting systems, we should make one thing clear: In the long run, even a European (or French) Roulette table gives the house an edge. In a traditional, brick-and-mortar setting, you could make like Jagger and several later roulette masters and attempt to “clock” the casino’s wheels (i.e., determine if they’re biased). But online roulette wheels are not mechanical objects. This means that, unlike Jagger and his men, over time you can expect to lose money because, no matter what system you’re using, online roulette wheels do not experience mechanical wear. However, many people find that betting systems make the game more enjoyable, and this is especially true in the case of roulette. More importantly, if you use these systems correctly and know when to quit, you can make a nice profit in the short run.

The Martingale System

The Martingale system can be used with any even-money casino game (i.e., games in which you stand to win the same amount that you bet – or a 1:1 payoff). In both European and American Roulette, even-money bets are made by betting on groups of 18 numbers, such as black-red, low-high (1-18 or 19-36) and even-odd. These are all bets that would have a 50 percent chance of winning if not for the 0 slot (as well as the 00 in American Roulette).

The technique is simple: You start your betting at a certain amount, and double you bet after every loss. For example, start by betting £2. If you win, pocket your winnings (£2) and bet £2 again. If you lose, bet £4 on the next spin. By doing this, your first win will cover all previous losses and still net you a profit equal to your initial bet.

The Martingale is exciting and fun, its mathematics are simple, and it can yield a nice profit in the short run. However, doubling your bet with every loss means that your bet will reach big numbers very quickly. After all, your bet does grow exponentially every time you lose. For example, an initial bet of £2 will become an astonishing £1,024 after just one ten-loss streak. And you will only stand to win £2 after covering your losses. Moreover, because all casinos – be they land-based or Web-based - set a limit on how much you can bet at one time, inevitably the Martingale will run into trouble. Simply put, you’ll eventually lose so much that you can’t bet a larger amount to win back your losses. Most casinos set these limits at about 100 times the table minimum, so if you’re betting in £2 increments, you’ll stand to lose about £200 every time you hit a slump.

Still, all things considered, the Martingale is the best system to use when playing roulette online. The key to using it successfully is just knowing a few choice tricks. A typical Martingale sequence on any given even-money proposition would be as follows: £2, £4, £8, £16, £32, £64, £128, £256. The final bet, £256, is impossible to make because, as we said before, it’s over 100 times the table minimum (presumably £2). So by the seventh spin, you would have already lost so much you couldn’t recover it. Meanwhile, the probability of losing seven times in a row on a European Roulette wheel works out to about once every 106 spins (See: Turning the Tables: Advanced Roulette Strategy to learn how we figured this out). So, if a roulette wheel averages 105 spins per hour, you’ll have racked up a total unrecoverable loss of approximately £1,280 over ten hours of play. Why are we using such a random amount of time and such a randomly large number? Well, because the Law of Large Numbers (that is, the actual name for the “Law of Averages”) states that the number of times an outcome occurs will only reflect its statistical probability when the amount of samples approaches an extremely large number. For this reason, 1,050 spins (or ten hours of play) is more or less the magic number at which a 49 percent probability of winning will actually work out to around 490 wins.

By keeping this “magic number” in mind, we can begin devising ways to tweak the Martingale to our advantage. If, for instance, you implement “null betting” – that is, waiting a given number of consecutive losses before making your first money bet – you can actually force the house to beat you more times than is probable and not lose nearly as much of your bankroll as a result. Anything that probably won’t occur every 1,000 spins is, more than likely, out of the question for a 10-hour session. What doesn’t occur every 1,000 spins? Well, believe it or not, 11 straight losses doesn’t. This means that, if the maximum number of times you can lose before suffering an unrecoverable loss is seven, you will almost never suffer an unrecoverable loss in 10 hours of play as long as you wager nothing on each series of bets until the even-money proposition you intend to bet loses four times in a row. This is the secret to all great Martingale players’ success, and since you can only use a placement system like the Martingale on online wheels, it’s also the best strategy any online-roulette player could learn.

The “Betting On Red” System

This system isn’t really a winning system per se. But it does give you the chance to play for an extremely long time – and, possibly, to get out of the game when you’re in the black. To use it, simply choose a fixed amount and keep betting it on red (or any other even-money bet - i.e., black, odds, etc.) for 37 consecutive spins. For example, in a European Roulette game you’ll bet £2 on red over and over again until the spin count reaches 37. This way, you’ll only need the ball to land on red 18.5 times European (or 19 for American) to get slightly ahead. Any more, you win; any less, you lose. But, in either case, your winnings and losses will be relatively minor. Once you reach 37 spins, you’ll cut your losses or pocket your winnings and start over. Continue doing this until you lose your bankroll, win enough to satisfy yourself or simply get tired of playing.

Betting on Red is slow and safe, and it’s considered by many to be the Martingale’s opposite. Still, it’s a good way to make your money last at a roulette table if you’re just in it for the enjoyment of the game. What’s more, it’s one of the few land-based roulette systems that carries over into online roulette well.

The Best Online Roulette Tables

No. 1 Vegas Red
Vegas Red’s sworn mission is to channel Vegas vibrations directly into your home (or office, or coffee shop or wherever you can get a signal), and as far as its roulette tables go, it’s succeeded. Not only are their graphics, sound effects and ambiance smokin’, but the site also offers a live-dealer option. Of course, these live games are slower than most Web-based wheels. But the fact that they’re some of the few live-dealer setups online more than makes up for it. What’s more, Vegas Red offers one of the best bonuses available at any casino, both online and off: €888 for every first deposit.

No. 2 Spin Palace Casino
Our online-roulette review just wouldn’t be complete without mentioning Spin Palace Casino. With roulette and slots as its central focus, Spin offers players a greater variety of roulette types – including American, French and British Roulette, as well as tables offering En Prison and Surrender – than any other site. Of course, we might be a little biased considering that GP readers get an exclusive first-deposit 100 percent bonus (up to €100) – but, then, we highly doubt anyone’s going to complain.

No. 3 Casino Tropez
Some readers may be asking themselves “Does Casino Tropez have to make the Top 3 in every category under the sun?” And the truth is, it doesn’t. But the roulette table at Casino Tropez does deserve to make it into our list simply because it’s so darned hot. Like all Playtech-powered casinos, Tropez’s European Roulette has great functionality, fast spins and an interface so easy to use your grandma would call it old-fashioned. Meanwhile, Tropaz’s roulette minimum starts at a measly €1, making its table ideal for testing out new systems. And, yeah, just in case you were wondering, we have arranged a sweet deal with this one too: Check out Casino Tropez and you’ll receive €15 cash with no deposit.

- Miles Hofex

TO AVOID LEGAL REDRESS UNDER INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT LAW, REPRINTERS MUST CITE THE AUTHOR

01-Dec-2008, 21:49

Print Send to friend