Edward O. Thorp – The Father of Card Counting

Edward O. Thorp is considered by many to be the father of blackjack card counting. This American mathematics professor was the first to prove mathematically that players could gain an advantage over the house by applying card counting techniques to blackjack. Card counting is a method for players to keep track of which cards have been played and which cards are still in the deck. The basic idea is that the more high cards (tens and aces) still in the deck, the better odds the player has to hit a good hand, or even a blackjack. Thorp’s technique is described in his popular book Beat the Dealer, which was first published in 1962.

Thorp started out in the field of physics, earning his masters at UCLA. He then went on to write his doctorate in mathematics, and became a professor at MIT. Thorp always considered himself an avid lover of the game, but it wasn’t until he came across an article in a statistical journal dealing with the fundamentals of blackjack mathematics that he decided to devote his time to researching blackjack. He was instantly charmed by the idea that blackjack could be studied as a systematic method, and started conducting his own research.

Thorp used an IBM 704, which was the first mass-produced computer that supported floating-point arithmetic, as his primary research tool to investigate the winning probabilities of blackjack. This was the first time in the history of computing that a computer was used as a gambling aid. Thorp came up with numerous equations that simulated the game from a purely mathematical point of view, and his labor turned out to be fruitful. Thorp concluded that if one applies card counting to his game, one could eliminate the 5% advantage the house held, and turn it into a 1% advantage in favor of the player. For example, if a player’s average bet is $100, a 1% advantage means he will win on average $1 per hand. This turns into an average winning of $50 per hour, assuming the player is dealt 50 hands per hour.

Thorp didn’t stop there, and decided to test his theory for real. With the financial backing of Manny Kimmel, a known mob associate, he took $10,000 and flew out to Las Vegas. In a single weekend, Thorp won $11,000 from various casinos (the ruff equivalent of $65,000 today), and drew much attention from bystanders as well as casino security. He was repeatedly expelled from the premises of every casino he visited during that weekend.

After news of his successful experiment spread, there was a great demand throughout the gambling community for written material about his new method. Soon after, Thorp wrote Beat the Dealer, which became an instant hit. It sold over 700,000 copies and entered the New York Times bestsellers list within weeks. The book was the first of its kind, and is still regarded as ‘the card counting bible’. Every book subsequently written on the subject uses Thorp’s methods as a basis to its system.

In the book, Thorp reveals the widely known ‘ten count system’, a step-by-step tutorial describing how players can gain an advantage over the casino by simple means of card counting. It also outlines various betting strategies for optimal blackjack play. In 1966 a second edition was published, and the technique became even more user-friendly. Naturally, the second edition was also a great success.

Though Thorp’s betting strategies are still mathematically sound, some of them can no longer be applied, since the casinos took counter measures to ensure that players would not exploit their weaknesses. For example, casinos no longer deal to the last card in the deck. Also, Thorp’s ‘ten count system’ described in the book is harder to use and less profitable than some of the point-count systems that have been developed since.

01-Dec-2007, 15:30

Print Send to friend